Publications by Year: 2017

This study uses the results of the FOURIER trial to assess the current cost-effectiveness of PCSK9 inhibitors over the lifetime analytic horizon for patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in the United States.

Numerous large randomized clinical trials have shown that statin therapy is effective and safe for primary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) for adults aged 40 to 75 years and support the use of 10-year CVD risk as a means to identify individuals for treatment. Uncertainty exists in those older than 75 years who may be more likely to benefit because of their underlying CVD risk, but also face uncertain harms. Several high-quality mathematical simulation models have shown that statin therapy is cost-effective for primary prevention of atherosclerotic CVD. Despite effectiveness and safety, statins are underutilized for primary prevention.

BACKGROUND: Statins are effective in the primary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. The 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) guideline expands recommended statin use, but its cost-effectiveness has not been compared with other guidelines.

METHODS: We used the Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model to estimate the cost-effectiveness of the ACC/AHA guideline relative to current use, Adult Treatment Panel III guidelines, and universal statin use in all men 45 to 74 years of age and women 55 to 74 years of age over a 10-year horizon from 2016 to 2025. Sensitivity analyses varied costs, risks, and benefits. Main outcomes were incremental cost-effectiveness ratios and numbers needed to treat for 10 years per quality-adjusted life-year gained.

RESULTS: Each approach produces substantial benefits and net cost savings relative to the status quo. Full adherence to the Adult Treatment Panel III guideline would result in 8.8 million more statin users than the status quo, at a number needed to treat for 10 years per quality-adjusted life-year gained of 35. The ACC/AHA guideline would potentially result in up to 12.3 million more statin users than the Adult Treatment Panel III guideline, with a marginal number needed to treat for 10 years per quality-adjusted life-year gained of 68. Moderate-intensity statin use in all men 45 to 74 years of age and women 55 to 74 years of age would result in 28.9 million more statin users than the ACC/AHA guideline, with a marginal number needed to treat for 10 years per quality-adjusted life-year gained of 108. In all cases, benefits would be greater in men than women. Results vary moderately with different risk thresholds for instituting statins and statin toxicity estimates but depend greatly on the disutility caused by daily medication use (pill burden).

CONCLUSIONS: At a population level, the ACC/AHA guideline for expanded statin use for primary prevention is projected to treat more people, to save more lives, and to cost less compared with Adult Treatment Panel III in both men and women. Whether individuals benefit from long-term statin use for primary prevention depends more on the disutility associated with pill burden than their degree of cardiovascular risk.

BACKGROUND: Planning for mass gatherings often includes temporary healthcare systems to address the needs of attendees. However, paper-based record keeping has traditionally precluded the timely application of collected clinical data for epidemic surveillance or optimization of healthcare delivery. We evaluated the feasibility of harnessing ubiquitous mobile technologies for conducting disease surveillance and monitoring resource utilization at the Allahabad Kumbh Mela in India, a 55-day festival attended by over 70 million people.

METHODS: We developed an inexpensive, tablet-based customized disease surveillance system with real-time analytic capabilities, and piloted it at five field hospitals.

RESULTS: The system captured 49 131 outpatient encounters over the 3-week study period. The most common presenting complaints were musculoskeletal pain (19%), fever (17%), cough (17%), coryza (16%) and diarrhoea (5%). The majority of patients received at least one prescription. The most common prescriptions were for antimicrobials, acetaminophen and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs. There was great inter-site variability in caseload with the busiest hospital seeing 650% more patients than the least busy hospital, despite identical staffing.

CONCLUSIONS: Mobile-based health information solutions developed with a focus on user-centred design can be successfully deployed at mass gatherings in resource-scarce settings to optimize care delivery by providing real-time access to field data.

Proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) inhibitors substantially reduce low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, but it is presently unclear whether they also reduce mortality. The list prices of PCSK9 inhibitors in the United States (>$14,500 per year) are >100× higher than generic statins, and only a small fraction of their higher cost is likely to be recovered by prevention of cardiovascular events. The projected cost effectiveness of PCSK9 inhibitors does not meet generally accepted benchmarks for good value in the United States, but their value would be improved by substantial price reductions. For individual patients, the high out-of-pocket costs of PCSK9 inhibitors may impede access and reduce long-term adherence. The budgetary impact of PCSK9 inhibitors would be very large if all potentially eligible patients were treated, which poses dilemmas for policymakers, payers, and society.

This study examines PCSK9i cost-sharing requirements for Medicare Part D plans nationwide, which insure 41 million beneficiaries.