Publications

2025

Kohli-Lynch, Ciaran N, Andrew E Moran, Dhruv S Kazi, Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo, Neil Jordan, Dustin French, Yiyi Zhang, Thomas J Wang, and Brandon K Bellows. (2025) 2025. “Cost-Effectiveness of a Polypill for Cardiovascular Disease Prevention in an Underserved Population.”. JAMA Cardiology 10 (3): 224-33. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamacardio.2024.4812.

IMPORTANCE: The Southern Community Cohort Study (SCCS) Polypill Trial showed that a cardiovascular polypill (a single pill containing a statin and 3 half-standard dose antihypertensive medications) effectively controls cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors in a majority Black race and low-income population. The cost-effectiveness of polypill treatment in this population has not been previously studied.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the cost-effectiveness of the cardiovascular polypill.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A discrete-event simulation version of the well-established CVD policy model simulated clinical and economic outcomes of the SCCS Polypill Trial from a health care sector perspective. A time horizon of 10 years was adopted. Polypill treatment was priced at $463 per year in the base-case analysis. Model input data were derived from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, pooled longitudinal cohort studies, the SCCS Polypill Trial, and published literature. Two cohorts were analyzed: an SCCS Polypill Trial-representative cohort of 100 000 individuals and all trial-eligible non-Hispanic Black US adults. Study parameters and model inputs were varied extensively in 1-way and probabilistic sensitivity analysis.

EXPOSURES: Polypill treatment or usual care.

MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURES: Primary outcomes were direct health care costs (US dollar 2023) and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), both discounted 3% annually, and the incremental cost per QALY gained.

RESULTS: In the trial-representative cohort of 100 000 individuals (mean [SD] age, 56.9 [5.9] years; 61 807 female [61.8%]), polypill treatment was projected to yield a mean of 1190 (95% uncertainty interval, 287-2159) additional QALYs compared with usual care, at a cost of approximately $10 152 000. Hence, polypill treatment was estimated to cost $8560 per QALY gained compared with usual care and was high value (<$50 000 per QALY gained) in 99% of simulations. Polypill treatment was estimated to be high value when priced at $559 or less per year and cost saving when priced at $443 or less per year. In almost all sensitivity analyses, polypill treatment remained high value. In a secondary analysis of 3 602 427 trial-eligible non-Hispanic Black US adults (mean [SD] age, 55.4 [7.6] years; 2 006 597 female [55.7%]), polypill treatment was high value, with an estimated cost of $13 400 per QALY gained.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Results of this economic evaluation suggest that polypill treatment could be a high value intervention for a low-income, majority Black population with limited access to health care services. It could additionally reduce health disparities.

Martin, Seth S, Aaron W Aday, Norrina B Allen, Zaid I Almarzooq, Cheryl A M Anderson, Pankaj Arora, Christy L Avery, et al. (2025) 2025. “2025 Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics: A Report of US and Global Data From the American Heart Association.”. Circulation 151 (8): e41-e660. https://doi.org/10.1161/CIR.0000000000001303.

BACKGROUND: The American Heart Association (AHA), in conjunction with the National Institutes of Health, annually reports the most up-to-date statistics related to heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular risk factors, including core health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, nutrition, sleep, and obesity) and health factors (cholesterol, blood pressure, glucose control, and metabolic syndrome) that contribute to cardiovascular health. The AHA Heart Disease and Stroke Statistical Update presents the latest data on a range of major clinical heart and circulatory disease conditions (including stroke, brain health, complications of pregnancy, kidney disease, congenital heart disease, rhythm disorders, sudden cardiac arrest, subclinical atherosclerosis, coronary heart disease, cardiomyopathy, heart failure, valvular disease, venous thromboembolism, and peripheral artery disease) and the associated outcomes (including quality of care, procedures, and economic costs).

METHODS: The AHA, through its Epidemiology and Prevention Statistics Committee, continuously monitors and evaluates sources of data on heart disease and stroke in the United States and globally to provide the most current information available in the annual Statistical Update with review of published literature through the year before writing. The 2025 AHA Statistical Update is the product of a full year's worth of effort in 2024 by dedicated volunteer clinicians and scientists, committed government professionals, and AHA staff members. This year's edition includes a continued focus on health equity across several key domains and enhanced global data that reflect improved methods and incorporation of ≈3000 new data sources since last year's Statistical Update.

RESULTS: Each of the chapters in the Statistical Update focuses on a different topic related to heart disease and stroke statistics.

CONCLUSIONS: The Statistical Update represents a critical resource for the lay public, policymakers, media professionals, clinicians, health care administrators, researchers, health advocates, and others seeking the best available data on these factors and conditions.

2024

Kumar, Ashish, Sumanth Khadke, Sadeer AlKindi, Sanjay Rajagopalan, Khurram Nasir, Dhruv Kazi, Javaria Ahmad, et al. (2024) 2024. “Particulate Matter 2.5 Pollution Impact on Comorbid Cancer and Cardiovascular Disease Mortality in the U.S.”. JACC. Advances 3 (8): 101106. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jacadv.2024.101106.

BACKGROUND: Evidence regarding the effect of long-term exposure to particulate matter (PM) 2.5 and comorbid cancer and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality is limited.

OBJECTIVES: In this study, the author report the association between long-term exposure to PM 2.5 and CVD mortality, cancer mortality and comorbid cancer and CVD mortality in the U.S. population.

METHODS: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) WONDER (Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research) multiple-cause-of-death database was used to obtain U.S. county-level mortality and population estimates from 2016 to 2020. Data on average daily density of PM 2.5 were abstracted from the 2018 CDC's National Environmental Public Health Tracking system. Counties were divided into quartiles with Q1 representing counties with least average daily density and Q4 representing counties with maximum average daily density of PM 2.5. Age-adjusted mortality rates were abstracted for each quartile, for the overall population and subgroups of population.

RESULTS: The age-adjusted mortality rates for CVD, cancer, and comorbid cancer and CVD mortality were 505.3 (range: 505.0-505.7), 210.7 (range: 210.5-210.9), and 62.0 (range: 61.8-62.1) per 100,000 person-years, respectively. CVD mortality had the highest percentage excess mortality in Q4 compared with Q1, followed by comorbid cancer and CVD. Cancer had the least percentage excess mortality. A disproportionate effect of PM 2.5 exposure was noted on vulnerable and minority groups, based on Social Vulnerability Index and race stratification, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS: Higher levels of long-term PM 2.5 exposure reported increased CVD mortality, cancer mortality and comorbid cancer and CVD disease mortality, with a pronounced detrimental effect in vulnerable and minority population.

Laranjo, Liliana, Fernando Lanas, Marie Chan Sun, Deborah Anne Chen, Lisa Hynes, Tasnim F Imran, Dhruv S Kazi, et al. (2024) 2024. “World Heart Federation Roadmap for Secondary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease: 2023 Update.”. Global Heart 19 (1): 8. https://doi.org/10.5334/gh.1278.

BACKGROUND: Secondary prevention lifestyle and pharmacological treatment of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) reduce a high proportion of recurrent events and mortality. However, significant gaps exist between guideline recommendations and usual clinical practice.

OBJECTIVES: Describe the state of the art, the roadblocks, and successful strategies to overcome them in ASCVD secondary prevention management.

METHODS: A writing group reviewed guidelines and research papers and received inputs from an international committee composed of cardiovascular prevention and health systems experts about the article's structure, content, and draft. Finally, an external expert group reviewed the paper.

RESULTS: Smoking cessation, physical activity, diet and weight management, antiplatelets, statins, beta-blockers, renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitors, and cardiac rehabilitation reduce events and mortality. Potential roadblocks may occur at the individual, healthcare provider, and health system levels and include lack of access to healthcare and medicines, clinical inertia, lack of primary care infrastructure or built environments that support preventive cardiovascular health behaviours. Possible solutions include improving health literacy, self-management strategies, national policies to improve lifestyle and access to secondary prevention medication (including fix-dose combination therapy), implementing rehabilitation programs, and incorporating digital health interventions. Digital tools are being examined in a range of settings from enhancing self-management, risk factor control, and cardiac rehab.

CONCLUSIONS: Effective strategies for secondary prevention management exist, but there are barriers to their implementation. WHF roadmaps can facilitate the development of a strategic plan to identify and implement local and national level approaches for improving secondary prevention.