Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To determine the optimal estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) cutoff for use in risk stratification and prediction models.
BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease increases morbidity and mortality in most vascular procedures. However, a binary classification of eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m 2 , which is often used in both modeling and clinical trials, may not be optimal for predicting clinical outcomes.
METHODS: Vascular quality initiative data for nonemergent, first-time open aortic repair, endovascular aortic aneurysm repair, thoracic endovascular aortic repair, carotid endarterectomy, carotid artery stenting, peripheral vascular intervention, supra-inguinal bypass, and infra-inguinal bypass were analyzed from 2013 to 2023 and divided into cohorts based on eGFR (≥60, 45-59, 30-44, <30, and preoperative dialysis). χ 2 and logistic regression were used to evaluate perioperative outcomes.
RESULTS: Compared with patients with eGFR ≥60, those with eGFR 45 to 59 had similar odds of mortality following all procedures, except thoracic endovascular aortic repair. Driven by this group, the combined cohort showed a slight increase in the odds of mortality for eGFR 45 to 59 (0.6% vs 0.7%, adjusted odds ratio(aOR): 1.16, P = 0.002). Those in the 30 to 44 group demonstrated increased odds of mortality both overall and in the individual procedure groups (0.6% vs 1.2%, aOR: 1.78, P < 0.001). The odds of mortality continued to increase with worsening eGFR. The overall rate of new permanent dialysis was low for all eGFR cohorts, with a 0.02% difference between those with eGFR ≥60 and those in the 45 to 59 cohort (0.04% vs 0.06%; aOR: 1.65, P < 0.001). The odds of permanent dialysis likewise continued to increase with decreasing eGFR.
CONCLUSIONS: Rather than a binary eGFR cutoff of ≥60 and <60 to stratify patient risk, better risk stratification may be achieved by using 5 groups of ≥60, 45 to 59, 30 to 44, <30, and preoperative dialysis.