Publications

2014

Kassebaum, Nicholas J, Amelia Bertozzi-Villa, Megan S Coggeshall, Katya A Shackelford, Caitlyn Steiner, Kyle R Heuton, Diego Gonzalez-Medina, et al. (2014) 2014. “Global, Regional, and National Levels and Causes of Maternal Mortality During 1990-2013: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.”. Lancet (London, England) 384 (9947): 980-1004. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60696-6.
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BACKGROUND: The fifth Millennium Development Goal (MDG 5) established the goal of a 75% reduction in the maternal mortality ratio (MMR; number of maternal deaths per 100,000 livebirths) between 1990 and 2015. We aimed to measure levels and track trends in maternal mortality, the key causes contributing to maternal death, and timing of maternal death with respect to delivery.

METHODS: We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to analyse a database of data for 7065 site-years and estimate the number of maternal deaths from all causes in 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. We estimated the number of pregnancy-related deaths caused by HIV on the basis of a systematic review of the relative risk of dying during pregnancy for HIV-positive women compared with HIV-negative women. We also estimated the fraction of these deaths aggravated by pregnancy on the basis of a systematic review. To estimate the numbers of maternal deaths due to nine different causes, we identified 61 sources from a systematic review and 943 site-years of vital registration data. We also did a systematic review of reports about the timing of maternal death, identifying 142 sources to use in our analysis. We developed estimates for each country for 1990-2013 using Bayesian meta-regression. We estimated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for all values.

FINDINGS: 292,982 (95% UI 261,017-327,792) maternal deaths occurred in 2013, compared with 376,034 (343,483-407,574) in 1990. The global annual rate of change in the MMR was -0·3% (-1·1 to 0·6) from 1990 to 2003, and -2·7% (-3·9 to -1·5) from 2003 to 2013, with evidence of continued acceleration. MMRs reduced consistently in south, east, and southeast Asia between 1990 and 2013, but maternal deaths increased in much of sub-Saharan Africa during the 1990s. 2070 (1290-2866) maternal deaths were related to HIV in 2013, 0·4% (0·2-0·6) of the global total. MMR was highest in the oldest age groups in both 1990 and 2013. In 2013, most deaths occurred intrapartum or postpartum. Causes varied by region and between 1990 and 2013. We recorded substantial variation in the MMR by country in 2013, from 956·8 (685·1-1262·8) in South Sudan to 2·4 (1·6-3·6) in Iceland.

INTERPRETATION: Global rates of change suggest that only 16 countries will achieve the MDG 5 target by 2015. Accelerated reductions since the Millennium Declaration in 2000 coincide with increased development assistance for maternal, newborn, and child health. Setting of targets and associated interventions for after 2015 will need careful consideration of regions that are making slow progress, such as west and central Africa.

FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Wang, Haidong, Chelsea A Liddell, Matthew M Coates, Meghan D Mooney, Carly E Levitz, Austin E Schumacher, Henry Apfel, et al. (2014) 2014. “Global, Regional, and National Levels of Neonatal, Infant, and Under-5 Mortality During 1990-2013: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.”. Lancet (London, England) 384 (9947): 957-79. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60497-9.
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BACKGROUND: Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success.

METHODS: We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0-6 days), late neonatal (7-28 days), postneonatal (29-364 days), childhood (1-4 years), and under-5 (0-4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29,000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030.

FINDINGS: We estimated that 6·3 million (95% UI 6·0-6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17·6 million (17·1-18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6-177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8-2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from -6·8% to 0·1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000-13 than during 1990-2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6% of under-5 deaths compared with 37·4% in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbers of births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1·4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0·9 million and 2·2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4·2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only -1% of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone.

INTERPRETATION: Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 2030.

FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, US Agency for International Development.

Murray, Christopher J L, Katrina F Ortblad, Caterina Guinovart, Stephen S Lim, Timothy M Wolock, Allen Roberts, Emily A Dansereau, et al. (2014) 2014. “Global, Regional, and National Incidence and Mortality for HIV, Tuberculosis, and Malaria During 1990-2013: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.”. Lancet (London, England) 384 (9947): 1005-70. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60844-8.
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BACKGROUND: The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration.

METHODS: To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets.

FINDINGS: Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990.

INTERPRETATION: Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action.

FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

2013

Hlatky, Mark A, Derek B Boothroyd, Laurence Baker, Dhruv S Kazi, Matthew D Solomon, Tara I Chang, David Shilane, and Alan S Go. (2013) 2013. “Comparative Effectiveness of Multivessel Coronary Bypass Surgery and Multivessel Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: A Cohort Study.”. Annals of Internal Medicine 158 (10): 727-34. https://doi.org/10.7326/0003-4819-158-10-201305210-00639.
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BACKGROUND: Randomized trials of coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery and percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) suggest that patient characteristics modify the effect of treatment on mortality.

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether clinical characteristics modify the comparative effectiveness of CABG versus PCI in an unselected, general patient population.

DESIGN: Observational treatment comparison using propensity score matching and Cox proportional hazards models.

SETTING: United States, 1992 to 2008.

PATIENTS: Medicare beneficiaries aged 66 years or older.

INTERVENTION: Multivessel CABG or multivessel PCI.

MEASUREMENTS: The CABG-PCI hazard ratio (HR) for all-cause mortality, with prespecified treatment-by-covariate interaction tests, and the absolute difference in life-years of survival in clinical subgroups after CABG or PCI, both over 5 years of follow-up.

RESULTS: Among 105 156 propensity score-matched patients, CABG was associated with lower mortality than PCI (HR, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.90 to 0.95]; P < 0.001). Association of CABG with lower mortality was significantly greater (interaction P ≤ 0.002 for each) among patients with diabetes (HR, 0.88), a history of tobacco use (HR, 0.82), heart failure (HR, 0.84), and peripheral arterial disease (HR, 0.85). The overall predicted difference in survival between CABG and PCI treatment over 5 years was 0.053 life-years (range, -0.017 to 0.579 life-years). Patients with diabetes, heart failure, peripheral arterial disease, or tobacco use had the largest predicted differences in survival after CABG, whereas those with none of these factors had slightly better survival after PCI.

LIMITATION: Treatments were chosen by patients and physicians rather than being randomly assigned.

CONCLUSION: Multivessel CABG is associated with lower long-term mortality than multivessel PCI in the community setting. This association is substantially modified by patient characteristics, with improvement in survival concentrated among patients with diabetes, tobacco use, heart failure, or peripheral arterial disease.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.

Chang, Tara I, Thomas K Leong, Dhruv S Kazi, Hon S Lee, Mark A Hlatky, and Alan S Go. (2013) 2013. “Comparative Effectiveness of Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting and Percutaneous Coronary Intervention for Multivessel Coronary Disease in a Community-Based Population With Chronic Kidney Disease.”. American Heart Journal 165 (5): 800-8, 808.e1. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ahj.2013.02.012.
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BACKGROUND: Randomized clinical trials comparing coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) with percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) have largely excluded patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD), leading to uncertainty about the optimal coronary revascularization strategy. We sought to test the hypothesis that an initial strategy of CABG would be associated with lower risks of long-term mortality and cardiovascular morbidity compared with PCI for the treatment of multivessel coronary heart disease in the setting of CKD.

METHODS: We created a propensity score-matched cohort of patients aged ≥30 years with no prior dialysis or renal transplant who received multivessel coronary revascularization between 1996 and 2008 within a large integrated health care delivery system in northern California. We used extended Cox regression to examine death from any cause, acute coronary syndrome, and repeat revascularization.

RESULTS: Coronary artery bypass grafting was associated with a significantly lower adjusted rate of death than PCI across all strata of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) (in mL/min per 1.73 m(2)): the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) was 0.81, 95% CI 0.68 to 1.00 for patients with eGFR ≥60; HR 0.73 (CI 0.56-0.95) for eGFR of 45 to 59; and HR 0.87 (CI 0.67-1.14) for eGFR <45. Coronary artery bypass grafting was also associated with significantly lower rates of acute coronary syndrome and repeat revascularization at all levels of eGFR compared with PCI.

CONCLUSIONS: Among adults with and without CKD, multivessel CABG was associated with lower risks of death and coronary events compared with multivessel PCI.

2012

  • Aggarwal, Rahul, Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo, Robert W Yeh, Yang Song, Nicholas Chiu, Rishi K Wadhera, Changyu Shen, and Dhruv S Kazi. (2022) 2022. “Diabetes Screening by Race and Ethnicity in the United States: Equivalent Body Mass Index and Age Thresholds.”. Annals of Internal Medicine 175 (6): 765-73. https://doi.org/10.7326/M20-8079.
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    BACKGROUND: Racial/ethnic minority populations in the United States have increased rates of diabetes compared with White populations. The 2021 guidelines from the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force recommend diabetes screening for adults aged 35 to 70 years with a body mass index (BMI) of 25 kg/m2 or greater.

    OBJECTIVE: To determine the BMI threshold for diabetes screening in major racial/ethnic minority populations with benefits and harms equivalent to those of the current diabetes screening threshold in White adults.

    DESIGN: Cross-sectional study.

    SETTING: NHANES (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey), 2011 to 2018.

    PARTICIPANTS: Nonpregnant U.S. adults aged 18 to 70 years (n = 19 335).

    MEASUREMENTS: A logistic regression model was used to estimate diabetes prevalence at various BMIs for White, Asian, Black, and Hispanic Americans. For each racial/ethnic minority group, the equivalent BMI threshold was defined as the BMI at which the prevalence of diabetes in 35-year-old persons in that group is equal to that in 35-year-old White adults at a BMI of 25 kg/m2. Ranges were estimated to account for the uncertainty in prevalence estimates for White and racial/ethnic minority populations.

    RESULTS: Among adults aged 35 years with a BMI of 25 kg/m2, the prevalence of diabetes in Asian Americans (3.8% [95% CI, 2.8% to 5.1%]), Black Americans (3.5% [CI, 2.7% to 4.7%]), and Hispanic Americans (3.0% [CI, 2.1% to 4.2%]) was significantly higher than that in White Americans (1.4% [CI, 1.0% to 2.0%]). Compared with a BMI threshold of 25 kg/m2 in White Americans, the equivalent BMI thresholds for diabetes prevalence were 20 kg/m2 (range, <18.5 to 23 kg/m2) for Asian Americans, less than 18.5 kg/m2 (range, <18.5 to 23 kg/m2) for Black Americans, and 18.5 kg/m2 (range, <18.5 to 24 kg/m2) for Hispanic Americans.

    LIMITATION: Sample size limitations precluded assessment of heterogeneity within racial/ethnic groups.

    CONCLUSION: Among U.S. adults aged 35 years or older, offering diabetes screening to Black Americans and Hispanic Americans with a BMI of 18.5 kg/m2 or greater and Asian Americans with a BMI of 20 kg/m2 or greater would be equivalent to screening White adults with a BMI of 25 kg/m2 or greater. Using screening thresholds specific to race/ethnicity has the potential to reduce disparities in diabetes diagnosis.

    PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Richard A. and Susan F. Smith Center for Outcomes Research in Cardiology.

  • Almarzooq, Zaid I, Dhruv S Kazi, Yun Wang, Mabel Chung, Wei Tian, Jordan B Strom, Suzanne J Baron, and Robert W Yeh. (2022) 2022. “Outcomes of Stroke Events During Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation.”. EuroIntervention : Journal of EuroPCR in Collaboration With the Working Group on Interventional Cardiology of the European Society of Cardiology 18 (4): e335-e344. https://doi.org/10.4244/EIJ-D-21-00951.
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    BACKGROUND: Despite improvements in the safety of transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI),  4% of patients experience a procedure-related stroke. Understanding long-term health and healthcare implications of these events may motivate the development and adoption of preventative strategies.  Aims: We aimed to assess the association of TAVI-related ischaemic stroke with subsequent clinical outcomes and healthcare utilisation.

    METHODS: We used Medicare fee-for-service claims to identify patients who underwent their first TAVI between January 2012 and December 2017. Previously used ICD-9-CM and ICD-10-CM codes were used to identify TAVI-related ischaemic stroke. Among those with and without TAVI-related ischaemic stroke, we compared the risk of a composite endpoint that included all-cause mortality, acute myocardial infarction, and subsequent stroke using inverse probability treatment weighted Cox regression. We also performed a difference-in-difference analysis to compare 1-year Medicare expenditures and days spent at home during the first year after TAVI.

    RESULTS:  Among 129,628 primary TAVI patients, 5,549 (4.3%) had a procedure-related stroke. These patients were more likely to be female and have had prior stroke, peripheral vascular disease, ischaemic heart disease, or renal failure. After adjustment, TAVI-related ischaemic stroke was associated with a higher risk of the 1-year composite outcome (HR 1.67, 95% CI: 1.56-1.78), higher 1-year Medicare expenditures (difference $9,245 [standard error 790], p<0.001), and fewer days at home during the first year (difference 16 days [standard error 1], p<0.001).

    CONCLUSIONS: Among Medicare beneficiaries undergoing TAVI, procedure-related ischaemic stroke was associated with worse outcomes, increased Medicare expenditures, and less time spent at home. Procedure-related ischaemic stroke during TAVI remains a critically important and potentially preventable source of patient mortality, morbidity and healthcare utilisation.

  • Bellows, Brandon K, Amit Khera V, Yiyi Zhang, Natalia Ruiz-Negrón, Henry M Stoddard, John B Wong, Dhruv S Kazi, Sarah D de Ferranti, and Andrew E Moran. (2022) 2022. “Estimated Yield of Screening for Heterozygous Familial Hypercholesterolemia With and Without Genetic Testing in US Adults.”. Journal of the American Heart Association 11 (11): e025192. https://doi.org/10.1161/JAHA.121.025192.
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    Background Heterozygous familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) is a common genetic disorder causing premature cardiovascular disease. Despite this, there is no national screening program in the United States to identify individuals with FH or likely pathogenic FH genetic variants. Methods and Results The clinical characteristics and FH variant status of 49 738 UK Biobank participants were used to develop a regression model to predict the probability of having any FH variants. The regression model and modified Dutch Lipid Clinic Network criteria were applied to 39 790 adult participants (aged ≥20 years) in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey to estimate the yield of FH screening programs using Dutch Lipid Clinic Network clinical criteria alone (excluding genetic variant status), genetic testing alone, or combining clinical criteria with genetic testing. The regression model accurately predicted FH variant status in UK Biobank participants (observed prevalence, 0.27%; predicted, 0.26%; area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve, 0.88). In the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, the estimated yield per 1000 individuals screened (95% CI) was 3.7 (3.0-4.6) FH cases with the Dutch Lipid Clinic Network clinical criteria alone, 3.8 (2.7-5.1) cases with genetic testing alone, and 6.6 (5.3-8.0) cases by combining clinical criteria with genetic testing. In young adults aged 20 to 39 years, using clinical criteria alone was estimated to yield 1.3 (95% CI, 0.6-2.5) FH cases per 1000 individuals screened, which was estimated to increase to 4.2 (95% CI, 2.6-6.4) FH cases when combining clinical criteria with genetic testing. Conclusions Screening for FH using a combination of clinical criteria with genetic testing may increase identification and the opportunity for early treatment of individuals with FH.

  • Islam, Shabatun J, Gargya Malla, Robert W Yeh, Arshed A Quyyumi, Dhruv S Kazi, Wei Tian, Yang Song, et al. (2022) 2022. “County-Level Social Vulnerability Is Associated With In-Hospital Death and Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events in Patients Hospitalized With COVID-19: An Analysis of the American Heart Association COVID-19 Cardiovascular Disease Registry.”. Circulation. Cardiovascular Quality and Outcomes 15 (8): e008612. https://doi.org/10.1161/CIRCOUTCOMES.121.008612.
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    BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has disproportionately affected low-income and racial/ethnic minority populations in the United States. However, it is unknown whether hospitalized patients with COVID-19 from socially vulnerable communities experience higher rates of death and/or major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs). Thus, we evaluated the association between county-level social vulnerability and in-hospital mortality and MACE in a national cohort of hospitalized COVID-19 patients.

    METHODS: Our study population included patients with COVID-19 in the American Heart Association COVID-19 Cardiovascular Disease Registry across 107 US hospitals between January 14, 2020 to November 30, 2020. The Social Vulnerability Index (SVI), a composite measure of community vulnerability developed by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, was used to classify the county-level social vulnerability of patients' place of residence. We fit a hierarchical logistic regression model with hospital-level random intercepts to evaluate the association of SVI with in-hospital mortality and MACE.

    RESULTS: Among 16 939 hospitalized COVID-19 patients in the registry, 5065 (29.9%) resided in the most vulnerable communities (highest national quartile of SVI). Compared with those in the lowest quartile of SVI, patients in the highest quartile were younger (age 60.2 versus 62.3 years) and more likely to be Black adults (36.7% versus 12.2%) and Medicaid-insured (31.1% versus 23.0%). After adjustment for demographics (age, sex, race/ethnicity) and insurance status, the highest quartile of SVI (compared with the lowest) was associated with higher likelihood of in-hospital mortality (OR, 1.25 [1.03-1.53]; P=0.03) and MACE (OR, 1.26 [95% CI, 1.05-1.50]; P=0.01). These findings were not attenuated after accounting for clinical comorbidities and acuity of illness on admission.

    CONCLUSIONS: Patients hospitalized with COVID-19 residing in more socially vulnerable communities experienced higher rates of in-hospital mortality and MACE, independent of race, ethnicity, and several clinical factors. Clinical and health system strategies are needed to improve health outcomes for socially vulnerable patients.

  • Ganatra, Sarju, Sourbha S Dani, Ashish Kumar, Safi U Khan, Rishi Wadhera, Tomas G Neilan, Paaladinesh Thavendiranathan, et al. (2022) 2022. “Impact of Social Vulnerability on Comorbid Cancer and Cardiovascular Disease Mortality in the United States.”. JACC. CardioOncology 4 (3): 326-37. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaccao.2022.06.005.
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    BACKGROUND: Racial and social disparities exist in outcomes related to cancer and cardiovascular disease (CVD).

    OBJECTIVES: The aim of this cross-sectional study was to study the impact of social vulnerability on mortality attributed to comorbid cancer and CVD.

    METHODS: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research database (2015-2019) was used to obtain county-level mortality data attributed to cancer, CVD, and comorbid cancer and CVD. County-level social vulnerability index (SVI) data (2014-2018) were obtained from the CDC's Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry. SVI percentiles were generated for each county and aggregated to form SVI quartiles. Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) were estimated and compared across SVI quartiles to assess the impact of social vulnerability on mortality related to cancer, CVD, and comorbid cancer and CVD.

    RESULTS: The AAMR for comorbid cancer and CVD was 47.75 (95% CI: 47.66-47.85) per 100,000 person-years, with higher mortality in counties with greater social vulnerability. AAMRs for cancer and CVD were also significantly greater in counties with the highest SVIs. However, the proportional increase in mortality between the highest and lowest SVI counties was greater for comorbid cancer and CVD than for either cancer or CVD alone. Adults <45 years of age, women, Asian and Pacific Islanders, and Hispanics had the highest relative increase in comorbid cancer and CVD mortality between the fourth and first SVI quartiles, without significant urban-rural differences.

    CONCLUSIONS: Comorbid cancer and CVD mortality increased in counties with higher social vulnerability. Improved education, resource allocation, and targeted public health interventions are needed to address inequities in cardio-oncology.

  • Oseran, Andrew S, Tianyu Sun, Rishi K Wadhera, Issa J Dahabreh, James A de Lemos, Sandeep R Das, Christine Rutan, Aarti H Asnani, Robert W Yeh, and Dhruv S Kazi. (2022) 2022. “Enriching the American Heart Association COVID-19 Cardiovascular Disease Registry Through Linkage With External Data Sources: Rationale and Design.”. Journal of the American Heart Association 11 (18): e7743. https://doi.org/10.1161/JAHA.122.027094.
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    Background The AHA Registry (American Heart Association COVID-19 Cardiovascular Disease Registry) captures detailed information on hospitalized patients with COVID-19. The registry, however, does not capture information on social determinants of health or long-term outcomes. Here we describe the linkage of the AHA Registry with external data sources, including fee-for-service (FFS) Medicare claims, to fill these gaps and assess the representativeness of linked registry patients to the broader Medicare FFS population hospitalized with COVID-19. Methods and Results We linked AHA Registry records of adults ≥65 years from March 2020 to September 2021 with Medicare FFS claims using a deterministic linkage algorithm and with the American Hospital Association Annual Survey, Rural Urban Commuting Area codes, and the Social Vulnerability Index using hospital and geographic identifiers. We compared linked individuals with unlinked FFS beneficiaries hospitalized with COVID-19 to assess the representativeness of the AHA Registry. A total of 10 010 (47.0%) records in the AHA Registry were successfully linked to FFS Medicare claims. Linked and unlinked FFS beneficiaries were similar with respect to mean age (78.1 versus 77.9, absolute standardized difference [ASD] 0.03); female sex (48.3% versus 50.2%, ASD 0.04); Black race (15.1% versus 12.0%, ASD 0.09); dual-eligibility status (26.1% versus 23.2%, ASD 0.07); and comorbidity burden. Linked patients were more likely to live in the northeastern United States (35.7% versus 18.2%, ASD 0.40) and urban/metropolitan areas (83.9% versus 76.8%, ASD 0.18). There were also differences in hospital-level characteristics between cohorts. However, in-hospital outcomes were similar (mortality, 23.3% versus 20.1%, ASD 0.08; home discharge, 45.5% versus 50.7%, ASD 0.10; skilled nursing facility discharge, 24.4% versus 22.2%, ASD 0.05). Conclusions Linkage of the AHA Registry with external data sources such as Medicare FFS claims creates a unique and generalizable resource to evaluate long-term health outcomes after COVID-19 hospitalization.

  • Riley, Elise D, Dhruv S Kazi, Phillip O Coffin, Eric Vittinghoff, Amanda N Wade, Tommaso C Bulfone, Kara L Lynch, Zahra Atai, and Alan H B Wu. (2022) 2022. “Impact of Multiple Substance Use on Circulating ST2, a Biomarker of Adverse Cardiac Remodelling, in Women.”. Biomarkers : Biochemical Indicators of Exposure, Response, and Susceptibility to Chemicals 27 (8): 802-8. https://doi.org/10.1080/1354750X.2022.2129451.
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    CONTEXT: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) and heart failure (HF) are major causes of mortality in low-income populations and differ by sex. Risk assessment that incorporates cardiac biomarkers is common. However, research evaluating the utility of biomarkers rarely includes controlled substances, which may influence biomarker levels and thus influence CVD risk assessment.

    MATERIALS AND METHODS: We identified the effects of multiple substances on soluble "suppression of tumorigenicity 2" (sST2), a biomarker of adverse cardiac remodelling, in 245 low-income women. Adjusting for CVD risk factors, we examined associations between substance use and sST2 over six monthly visits.

    RESULTS: Median age was 53 years and 74% of participants were ethnic minority women. An sST2 level > 35 ng/mL (suggesting cardiac remodelling) during ≥1 study visit was observed in 44% of participants. In adjusted analysis, higher sST2 levels were significantly and positively associated with the presence of cocaine (Adjusted Linear Effect [ALE]:1.10; 95% CI:1.03-1.19), alcohol (ALE:1.10; 95% CI:1.04-1.17), heroin (ALE:1.25; 95% CI:1.10-1.43), and the interaction between heroin and fentanyl use.

    CONCLUSION: Results suggest that the use of multiple substances influences the level of sST2, a biomarker often used to evaluate cardiovascular risk. Incorporating substance use alongside cardiac biomarkers may improve CVD risk assessment in vulnerable women.

  • Strom, Jordan B, Yuansong Zhao, Changyu Shen, Jason H Wasfy, Jiaman Xu, Evin Yucel, Varsha Tanguturi, et al. (2022) 2022. “Development and Validation of an Echocardiographic Algorithm to Predict Long-Term Mitral and Tricuspid Regurgitation Progression.”. European Heart Journal. Cardiovascular Imaging 23 (12): 1606-16. https://doi.org/10.1093/ehjci/jeab254.
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    AIMS: Prediction of mitral (MR) and tricuspid (TR) regurgitation progression on transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) is needed to personalize valvular surveillance intervals and prognostication.

    METHODS AND RESULTS: Structured TTE report data at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, 26 January 2000-31 December 2017, were used to determine time to progression (≥1+ increase in severity). TTE predictors of progression were used to create a progression score, externally validated at Massachusetts General Hospital, 1 January 2002-31 December 2019. In the derivation sample (MR, N = 34 933; TR, N = 27 526), only 5379 (15.4%) individuals with MR and 3630 (13.2%) with TR had progression during a median interquartile range) 9.0 (4.1-13.4) years of follow-up. Despite wide inter-individual variability in progression rates, a score based solely on demographics and TTE variables identified individuals with a five- to six-fold higher rate of MR/TR progression over 10 years (high- vs. low-score tertile, rate of progression; MR 20.1% vs. 3.3%; TR 21.2% vs. 4.4%). Compared to those in the lowest score tertile, those in the highest tertile of progression had a four-fold increased risk of mortality. On external validation, the score demonstrated similar performance to other algorithms commonly in use.

    CONCLUSION: Four-fifths of individuals had no progression of MR or TR over two decades. Despite wide interindividual variability in progression rates, a score, based solely on TTE parameters, identified individuals with a five- to six-fold higher rate of MR/TR progression. Compared to the lowest tertile, individuals in the highest score tertile had a four-fold increased risk of mortality. Prediction of long-term MR/TR progression is not only feasible but prognostically important.

  • Chung, Mabel, Neel M Butala, Kamil F Faridi, Zaid I Almarzooq, Dingning Liu, Jiaman Xu, Yang Song, et al. (2023) 2023. “Days at Home After Transcatheter or Surgical Aortic Valve Replacement in High-Risk Patients.”. American Heart Journal 255: 125-36. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ahj.2022.10.080.
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    BACKGROUND: Days at home (DAH) quantifies time spent at home after a medical event but has not been fully evaluated for TAVR. We sought to compare 1- and 5-year DAH (DAH365, DAH1825) among high-risk patients participating in a randomized trial of transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) with a self-expanding bioprosthesis versus surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR).

    METHODS: We linked data from the U.S. CoreValve High Risk Trial to Medicare Fee-for-Service claims in 456 patients with 450 (234 TAVR/216 SAVR) and 427 (222 TAVR/205 SAVR) analyzed at 1 and 5 years. DAH was calculated as the number of days alive and spent outside of a hospital, skilled nursing facility, rehabilitation, long-term acute care hospital, emergency department, or observation stay.

    RESULTS: Mean DAH365 was higher in patients who underwent TAVR compared with SAVR (295.1 ± 106.9 vs 267.8 ± 122.3, difference in days 27.2 [95% CI 6.0, 48.5], P = .01). Compared with SAVR, TAVR patients had a shorter index length of stay (LOS) (7.4 ± 4.5 vs 12.5 ± 9.0, difference in days -5.1 [-6.5, -3.8], P < .001). The largest contributions to decreased DAH365 were mortality days and total facility days after discharge from the index hospitalization (mortality days-TAVR: 34.7 ± 93.1 vs SAVR: 48.0 ± 108.8, difference in days -13.3 [95% CI -32.1, 5.5], P = .17; total facility days-TAVR: 27.9 ± 47.4 vs SAVR: 36.7 ± 48.9, difference in days -8.8 [95% CI -17.8, 0.1], P = .05). Mean DAH1825 was numerically but not statistically significantly higher in TAVR (TAVR: 1154.2 ± 659.0 vs SAVR: 1067.6 ± 697.3, difference in days 86.6 [95% CI -42.3, 215.6], P = .19). Landmark analysis showed no difference in DAH from years 1 to 5 (TAVR: 1040.4 ± 477.5 vs SAVR: 1022.9 ± 489.3, P = .74).

    CONCLUSIONS: In the U.S. CoreValve High Risk Trial linked to Medicare, high-risk patients undergoing TAVR spend an average of 27 additional DAH compared with SAVR in the first year after the procedure due to a shorter index LOS and the additive effect of fewer but nonsignificantly different mortality and total facility days after discharge from the index hospitalization compared with SAVR. After the first year, both groups spend a similar number of DAH. These results describe the postprocedural course of high-risk patients from a patient-centered perspective, which may guide expectations regarding longitudinal health care needs and inform shared decision-making.

  • Varghese, Merilyn S, Alexis L Beatty, Yang Song, Jiaman Xu, Laurence S Sperling, Gregg C Fonarow, Steven J Keteyian, et al. (2022) 2022. “Cardiac Rehabilitation and the COVID-19 Pandemic: Persistent Declines in Cardiac Rehabilitation Participation and Access Among US Medicare Beneficiaries.”. Circulation. Cardiovascular Quality and Outcomes 15 (12): e009618. https://doi.org/10.1161/CIRCOUTCOMES.122.009618.
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    BACKGROUND: The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on participation in and availability of cardiac rehabilitation (CR) is unknown.

    METHODS: Among eligible Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries, we evaluated, by month, the number of CR sessions attended per 100 000 beneficiaries, individuals eligible to initiate CR, and centers offering in-person CR between January 2019 and December 2021. We compared these outcomes between 2 periods: December 1, 2019 through February 28, 2020 (period 1, before declaration of the pandemic-related national emergency) and October 1, 2021 through December 31, 2021 (period 2, the latest period for which data are currently available).

    RESULTS: In period 1, Medicare beneficiaries participated in (mean±SD) 895±84 CR sessions per 100 000 beneficiaries each month. After the national emergency was declared, CR participation sharply declined to 56 CR sessions per 100 000 beneficiaries in April 2020. CR participation recovered gradually through December 2021 but remained lower than prepandemic levels (period 2: 698±29 CR sessions per month per 100 000 beneficiaries, P=0.02). Declines in CR participation were most marked among dual Medicare and Medicaid enrollees and patients residing in rural areas or socially vulnerable communities. There was no statistically significant change in CR eligibility between the 2 periods. Compared with 2618±5 CR centers in period 1, there were 2464±7 in period 2 (P<0.01). Compared with CR centers that survived the pandemic, 220 CR centers that closed were more likely to be affiliated with public hospitals, located in rural areas, and serve the most socially vulnerable communities.

    CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic was associated with a persistent decline in CR participation and the closure of CR centers, which disproportionately affected rural and low-income patients and the most socially vulnerable communities. Innovation in CR financing and delivery is urgently needed to equitably enhance CR participation among Medicare beneficiaries.

  • Tsao, Connie W, Aaron W Aday, Zaid I Almarzooq, Cheryl A M Anderson, Pankaj Arora, Christy L Avery, Carissa M Baker-Smith, et al. (2023) 2023. “Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics-2023 Update: A Report From the American Heart Association.”. Circulation 147 (8): e93-e621. https://doi.org/10.1161/CIR.0000000000001123.
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    BACKGROUND: The American Heart Association, in conjunction with the National Institutes of Health, annually reports the most up-to-date statistics related to heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular risk factors, including core health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, diet, and weight) and health factors (cholesterol, blood pressure, and glucose control) that contribute to cardiovascular health. The Statistical Update presents the latest data on a range of major clinical heart and circulatory disease conditions (including stroke, congenital heart disease, rhythm disorders, subclinical atherosclerosis, coronary heart disease, heart failure, valvular disease, venous disease, and peripheral artery disease) and the associated outcomes (including quality of care, procedures, and economic costs).

    METHODS: The American Heart Association, through its Epidemiology and Prevention Statistics Committee, continuously monitors and evaluates sources of data on heart disease and stroke in the United States to provide the most current information available in the annual Statistical Update with review of published literature through the year before writing. The 2023 Statistical Update is the product of a full year's worth of effort in 2022 by dedicated volunteer clinicians and scientists, committed government professionals, and American Heart Association staff members. The American Heart Association strives to further understand and help heal health problems inflicted by structural racism, a public health crisis that can significantly damage physical and mental health and perpetuate disparities in access to health care, education, income, housing, and several other factors vital to healthy lives. This year's edition includes additional COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) publications, as well as data on the monitoring and benefits of cardiovascular health in the population, with an enhanced focus on health equity across several key domains.

    RESULTS: Each of the chapters in the Statistical Update focuses on a different topic related to heart disease and stroke statistics.

    CONCLUSIONS: The Statistical Update represents a critical resource for the lay public, policymakers, media professionals, clinicians, health care administrators, researchers, health advocates, and others seeking the best available data on these factors and conditions.

  • Narasimmaraj, Prihatha R, Andrew Oseran, Archana Tale, Jiaman Xu, Utibe R Essien, Dhruv S Kazi, Robert W Yeh, and Rishi K Wadhera. (2023) 2023. “Out-of-Pocket Drug Costs for Medicare Beneficiaries With Cardiovascular Risk Factors Under the Inflation Reduction Act.”. Journal of the American College of Cardiology 81 (15): 1491-1501. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jacc.2023.02.002.
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    BACKGROUND: High out-of-pocket prescription drug costs contribute to financial toxicity, medication nonadherence, and adverse cardiovascular (CV) outcomes. Policymakers recently passed the Inflation Reduction Act, which will cap Medicare out-of-pocket drug costs at $2,000/year and expand full low-income subsidies (LIS). It is unclear how these provisions will affect Medicare beneficiaries with CV risk factors and/or conditions.

    OBJECTIVES: The authors sought to characterize the population of Medicare beneficiaries with CV risk factors/conditions experiencing out-of-pocket prescription drug costs >$2,000/year and estimate their potential savings under the Inflation Reduction Act's spending cap; identify sociodemographic characteristics associated with out-of-pocket costs >$2,000/year; and characterize beneficiaries newly eligible for LIS under the Inflation Reduction Act.

    METHODS: This was a cross-sectional study of Medicare beneficiaries aged ≥65 years with ≥1 CV risk factor/condition from 2016 to 2019.

    RESULTS: An annual estimated 34,056,335 ± 855,653 Medicare beneficiaries (mean ± SE) had ≥1 CV risk factor/condition, of whom 1,020,484 ± 77,055 experienced out-of-pocket drug costs >$2,000/year. The likelihood of experiencing out-of-pocket drug costs >$2,000/year was lower among adults ≥75 years vs 65 to 74 years (adjusted OR: 0.67; 95% CI: 0.49-0.93) and for low-income vs higher-income adults. Among beneficiaries currently spending >$2,000/year, estimated median out-of-pocket drug savings would be $855/year and total annual savings $1,723,031,307 ± $91,150,609 under the Inflation Reduction Act. An estimated 1,289,861 beneficiaries would also become newly eligible for LIS.

    CONCLUSIONS: More than 1 million older adults with CV risk factors and/or conditions spend >$2,000/year out-of-pocket on prescription drugs and will likely benefit from the Inflation Reduction Act's cap, with estimated total out-of-pocket savings of $1.7 billion/year, while another 1.3 million will also become newly eligible for LIS.

  • Cohen, Laura P, Nicolas Isaza, Inmaculada Hernandez, Gregory D Lewis, Jennifer E Ho, Gregg C Fonarow, Dhruv S Kazi, and Brandon K Bellows. (2023) 2023. “Cost-Effectiveness of Sodium-Glucose Cotransporter-2 Inhibitors for the Treatment of Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction.”. JAMA Cardiology 8 (5): 419-28. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamacardio.2023.0077.
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    IMPORTANCE: Adding a sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitor (SGLT2-I) to standard-of-care treatment in patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) reduces the risk of a composite outcome of worsening heart failure or cardiovascular mortality, but the cost-effectiveness in US patients with HFpEF is uncertain.

    OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the lifetime cost-effectiveness of standard therapy plus an SGLT2-I compared with standard therapy in individuals with HFpEF.

    DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: In this economic evaluation conducted from September 8, 2021, to December 12, 2022, a state-transition Markov model simulated monthly health outcomes and direct medical costs. Input parameters including hospitalization rates, mortality rates, costs, and utilities were extracted from HFpEF trials, published literature, and publicly available data sets. The base-case annual cost of SGLT2-I was $4506. A simulated cohort with similar characteristics as participants of the Empagliflozin in Heart Failure With a Preserved Ejection Fraction (EMPEROR-Preserved) and Dapagliflozin in Heart Failure With Mildly Reduced or Preserved Ejection Fraction (DELIVER) trials was used.

    EXPOSURES: Standard of care plus SGLT2-I vs standard of care.

    MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The model simulated hospitalizations, urgent care visits, and cardiovascular and noncardiovascular death. Future medical costs and benefits were discounted by 3% per year. Main outcomes were quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), direct medical costs (2022 US dollars), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of SGLT2-I therapy from a US health care sector perspective. The ICER of SGLT2-I therapy was evaluated according to the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association value framework (high value: <$50 000; intermediate value: $50 000 to <$150 000; and low value: ≥$150 000).

    RESULTS: The simulated cohort had a mean (SD) age of 71.7 (9.5) years and 6828 of 12 251 participants (55.7%) were male. Standard of care plus SGLT2-I increased quality-adjusted survival by 0.19 QALYs at an increased cost of $26 300 compared with standard of care. The resulting ICER was $141 200 per QALY gained, with 59.1% of 1000 probabilistic iterations indicating intermediate value and 40.9% indicating low value. The ICER was most sensitive to SGLT2-I costs and effect of SGLT2-I therapy on cardiovascular death (eg, increasing to $373 400 per QALY gained if SGLT2-I therapy was assumed to have no effect on mortality).

    CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Results of this economic evaluation suggest that at 2022 drug prices, adding an SGLT2-I to standard of care was of intermediate or low economic value compared with standard of care in US adults with HFpEF. Efforts to expand access to SGLT2-I for individuals with HFpEF should be coupled with efforts to lower the cost of SGLT2-I therapy.

  • Suen, Leslie W, Eric Vittinghoff, Alan H B Wu, Akshay Ravi, Phillip O Coffin, Priscilla Hsue, Kara L Lynch, Dhruv S Kazi, and Elise D Riley. (2023) 2023. “Multiple Substance Use and Blood Pressure in Women Experiencing Homelessness.”. Addictive Behaviors Reports 17: 100483. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.abrep.2023.100483.
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    BACKGROUND: Substance use increases risk of cardiovascular events, particularly among women with additional risk factors like housing instability. While multiple substance use is common among unstably housed individuals, relationships between multiple substance use and cardiovascular risk factors like blood pressure are not well characterized.

    METHODS: We conducted a cohort study between 2016 and 2019 to examine associations between multiple substance use and blood pressure in women experiencing homelessness and unstable housing. Participants completed six monthly visits including vital sign assessment, interview, and blood draw to assess toxicology-confirmed substance use (e.g., cocaine, alcohol, opioids) and cardiovascular health. We used linear mixed models to evaluate the outcomes of systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP; DBP).

    RESULTS: Mean age was 51.6 years; 74 % were women of color. Prevalence of any substance use was 85 %; 63 % of participants used at least two substances at baseline. Adjusting for race, body mass index and cholesterol, cocaine was the only substance significantly associated with SBP (4.71 mmHg higher; 95 % CI 1.68, 7.74) and DBP (2.83 mmHg higher; 95 % CI 0.72, 4.94). Further analysis found no differences in SBP or DBP between those with concurrent use of other stimulants, depressants, or both with cocaine, compared to those who used cocaine only.

    CONCLUSIONS: Cocaine was the only substance associated with higher SBP and DBP, even after accounting for simultaneous use of other substances. Along with interventions to address cocaine use, stimulant use screening during cardiovascular risk assessment and intensive blood pressure management may improve cardiovascular outcomes among women experiencing housing instability.

  • Kazi, Dhruv S, Colette DeJong, Randi Chen, Rishi K Wadhera, and Chien-Wen Tseng. (2023) 2023. “The Inflation Reduction Act and Out-of-Pocket Drug Costs for Medicare Beneficiaries With Cardiovascular Disease.”. Journal of the American College of Cardiology 81 (21): 2103-11. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jacc.2023.03.414.
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    BACKGROUND: High out-of-pocket costs can impede access to guideline-directed cardiovascular drugs. The 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) will eliminate catastrophic coinsurance and cap annual out-of-pocket costs for Medicare Part D patients by 2025.

    OBJECTIVES: This study sought to estimate the IRA's impact on out-of-pocket costs for Part D beneficiaries with cardiovascular disease.

    METHODS: The investigators chose 4 cardiovascular conditions that frequently require high-cost guideline-recommended drugs: severe hypercholesterolemia; heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF); HFrEF with atrial fibrillation (AF); and cardiac transthyretin amyloidosis. This study included 4,137 Part D plans nationwide and compared projected annual out-of-pocket drug costs for each condition in 2022 (baseline), 2023 (rollout), 2024 (5% catastrophic coinsurance eliminated), and 2025 ($2,000 cap on out-of-pocket costs).

    RESULTS: In 2022, mean projected annual out-of-pocket costs were $1,629 for severe hypercholesterolemia, $2,758 for HFrEF, $3,259 for HFrEF with AF, and $14,978 for amyloidosis. In 2023, the initial IRA rollout will not significantly change out-of-pocket costs for the 4 conditions. In 2024, elimination of 5% catastrophic coinsurance will lower out-of-pocket costs for the 2 costliest conditions: HFrEF with AF ($2,855, 12% reduction) and amyloidosis ($3,468, 77% reduction). By 2025, the $2,000 cap will lower out-of-pocket costs for all 4 conditions to $1,491 for hypercholesterolemia (8% reduction), $1,954 for HFrEF (29% reduction), $2,000 for HFrEF with AF (39% reduction), and $2,000 for cardiac transthyretin amyloidosis (87% reduction).

    CONCLUSIONS: The IRA will reduce Medicare beneficiaries' out-of-pocket drug costs for the selected cardiovascular conditions by 8% to 87%. Future studies should assess the IRA's impact on adherence to guideline-directed cardiovascular therapies and health outcomes.

  • Oseran, Andrew S, Yang Song, Jiaman Xu, Issa J Dahabreh, Rishi K Wadhera, James A de Lemos, Sandeep R Das, Tianyu Sun, Robert W Yeh, and Dhruv S Kazi. (2023) 2023. “Long Term Risk of Death and Readmission After Hospital Admission With Covid-19 Among Older Adults: Retrospective Cohort Study.”. BMJ (Clinical Research Ed.) 382: e076222. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2023-076222.
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    OBJECTIVES: To characterize the long term risk of death and hospital readmission after an index admission with covid-19 among Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries, and to compare these outcomes with historical control patients admitted to hospital with influenza.

    DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study.

    SETTING: United States.

    PARTICIPANTS: 883 394 Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries age ≥65 years discharged alive after an index hospital admission with covid-19 between 1 March 2020 and 31 August 2022, compared with 56 409 historical controls discharged alive after a hospital admission with influenza between 1 March 2018 and 31 August 2019. Weighting methods were used to account for differences in observed characteristics.

    MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: All cause death within 180 days of discharge. Secondary outcomes included first all cause readmission and a composite of death or readmission within 180 days.

    RESULTS: The covid-19 cohort compared with the influenza cohort was younger (77.9 v 78.9 years, standardized mean difference -0.12) and had a lower proportion of women (51.7% v 57.3%, -0.11). Both groups had a similar proportion of black beneficiaries (10.3% v 8.1%, 0.07) and beneficiaries with dual Medicaid-Medicare eligibility status (20.1% v 19.2%; 0.02). The covid-19 cohort had a lower comorbidity burden, including atrial fibrillation (24.3% v 29.5%, -0.12), heart failure (43.4% v 49.9%, -0.13), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (39.2% v 52.9%, -0.27). After weighting, the covid-19 cohort had a higher risk (ie, cumulative incidence) of all cause death at 30 days (10.9% v 3.9%; standardized risk difference 7.0%, 95% confidence interval 6.8% to 7.2%), 90 days (15.5% v 7.1%; 8.4%, 8.2% to 8.7%), and 180 days (19.1% v 10.5%; 8.6%, 8.3% to 8.9%) compared with the influenza cohort. The covid-19 cohort also experienced a higher risk of hospital readmission at 30 days (16.0% v 11.2%; 4.9%, 4.6% to 5.1%) and 90 days (24.1% v 21.3%; 2.8%, 2.5% to 3.2%) but a similar risk at 180 days (30.6% v 30.6%;-0.1%, -0.5% to 0.3%). Over the study period, the 30 day risk of death for patients discharged after a covid-19 admission decreased from 17.9% to 7.2%.

    CONCLUSIONS: Medicare beneficiaries who were discharged alive after a covid-19 hospital admission had a higher post-discharge risk of death compared with historical influenza controls; this difference, however, was concentrated in the early post-discharge period. The risk of death for patients discharged after a covid-19 related hospital admission substantially declined over the course of the pandemic.

  • Virani, Salim S, Kristin Newby, Suzanne Arnold V, Vera Bittner, LaPrincess C Brewer, Susan Halli Demeter, Dave L Dixon, et al. (2023) 2023. “2023 AHA/ACC/ACCP/ASPC/NLA/PCNA Guideline for the Management of Patients With Chronic Coronary Disease: A Report of the American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology Joint Committee on Clinical Practice Guidelines.”. Circulation 148 (9): e9-e119. https://doi.org/10.1161/CIR.0000000000001168.
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    AIM: The "2023 AHA/ACC/ACCP/ASPC/NLA/PCNA Guideline for the Management of Patients With Chronic Coronary Disease" provides an update to and consolidates new evidence since the "2012 ACCF/AHA/ACP/AATS/PCNA/SCAI/STS Guideline for the Diagnosis and Management of Patients With Stable Ischemic Heart Disease" and the corresponding "2014 ACC/AHA/AATS/PCNA/SCAI/STS Focused Update of the Guideline for the Diagnosis and Management of Patients With Stable Ischemic Heart Disease."

    METHODS: A comprehensive literature search was conducted from September 2021 to May 2022. Clinical studies, systematic reviews and meta-analyses, and other evidence conducted on human participants were identified that were published in English from MEDLINE (through PubMed), EMBASE, the Cochrane Library, Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, and other selected databases relevant to this guideline.

    STRUCTURE: This guideline provides an evidenced-based and patient-centered approach to management of patients with chronic coronary disease, considering social determinants of health and incorporating the principles of shared decision-making and team-based care. Relevant topics include general approaches to treatment decisions, guideline-directed management and therapy to reduce symptoms and future cardiovascular events, decision-making pertaining to revascularization in patients with chronic coronary disease, recommendations for management in special populations, patient follow-up and monitoring, evidence gaps, and areas in need of future research. Where applicable, and based on availability of cost-effectiveness data, cost-value recommendations are also provided for clinicians. Many recommendations from previously published guidelines have been updated with new evidence, and new recommendations have been created when supported by published data.

  • Members, Writing Committee, Salim S Virani, Kristin Newby, Suzanne Arnold V, Vera Bittner, LaPrincess C Brewer, Susan Halli Demeter, et al. (2023) 2023. “2023 AHA/ACC/ACCP/ASPC/NLA/PCNA Guideline for the Management of Patients With Chronic Coronary Disease: A Report of the American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology Joint Committee on Clinical Practice Guidelines.”. Journal of the American College of Cardiology 82 (9): 833-955. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jacc.2023.04.003.
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    AIM: The "2023 AHA/ACC/ACCP/ASPC/NLA/PCNA Guideline for the Management of Patients With Chronic Coronary Disease" provides an update to and consolidates new evidence since the "2012 ACCF/AHA/ACP/AATS/PCNA/SCAI/STS Guideline for the Diagnosis and Management of Patients With Stable Ischemic Heart Disease" and the corresponding "2014 ACC/AHA/AATS/PCNA/SCAI/STS Focused Update of the Guideline for the Diagnosis and Management of Patients With Stable Ischemic Heart Disease."

    METHODS: A comprehensive literature search was conducted from September 2021 to May 2022. Clinical studies, systematic reviews and meta-analyses, and other evidence conducted on human participants were identified that were published in English from MEDLINE (through PubMed), EMBASE, the Cochrane Library, Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, and other selected databases relevant to this guideline.

    STRUCTURE: This guideline provides an evidenced-based and patient-centered approach to management of patients with chronic coronary disease, considering social determinants of health and incorporating the principles of shared decision-making and team-based care. Relevant topics include general approaches to treatment decisions, guideline-directed management and therapy to reduce symptoms and future cardiovascular events, decision-making pertaining to revascularization in patients with chronic coronary disease, recommendations for management in special populations, patient follow-up and monitoring, evidence gaps, and areas in need of future research. Where applicable, and based on availability of cost-effectiveness data, cost-value recommendations are also provided for clinicians. Many recommendations from previously published guidelines have been updated with new evidence, and new recommendations have been created when supported by published data.

  • Ravi, Akshay, Eric Vittinghoff, Alan H B Wu, Leslie W Suen, Phillip O Coffin, Priscilla Hsue, Kara L Lynch, Sithu Win, Dhruv S Kazi, and Elise D Riley. (2023) 2023. “Cocaine Use Is Associated With Increased LVMI in Unstably Housed Women With Polysubstance Use.”. Substance Abuse 44 (4): 323-29. https://doi.org/10.1177/08897077231199572.
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    Publisher's Version

    BACKGROUND: While substance use is known to influence cardiovascular health, most prior studies only consider one substance at a time. We examined associations between the concurrent use of multiple substances and left ventricular mass index (LVMI) in unhoused and unstably housed women.

    METHODS: Between 2016 and 2019, we conducted a cohort study of unstably housed women in which measurements included an interview, serum/urine collection, vital sign assessment, and a single transthoracic echocardiogram at baseline. We evaluated independent associations between 39 separate substances confirmed through toxicology and echocardiography-confirmed LVMI.

    RESULTS: The study included 194 participants with a median age of 53.5 years and a high proportion of women of color (72.6%). Toxicology-confirmed substance use included: 69.1% nicotine, 56.2% cocaine, 28.9% methamphetamines, 28.9% alcohol, 23.2% opioid analgesics, and 9.8% opioids with catecholaminergic effects. In adjusted analysis, cocaine was independently associated with higher LVMI (Adjusted linear effect: 18%; 95% CI 9.9, 26.6). Associations with other substances did not reach levels of significance and did not significantly interact with cocaine.

    CONCLUSION: In a population of vulnerable women where the use of multiple substances is common, cocaine stands out as having particularly detrimental influences on cardiac structure. Blood pressure did not attenuate the association appreciably, suggesting direct effects of cocaine on LVMI. Routinely evaluating stimulant use as a chronic risk factor during risk assessment and preventive clinical care planning may reduce end organ damage, particularly in highly vulnerable women.