Prediction models for cognitive aging measures have largely evaluated demographic variables and APOE carrier status in populations of European ancestry. To comprehensively assess prediction models among Hispanic/Latinos, we considered 12 models (6 predictor sets and 2 methods) for global cognitive score change (GCSC) and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) in the Study of Latinos-Investigation of Neurocognitive Aging (SOL-INCA) (N = 5856). Based on the average mean squared error (MSE) for GCSC or average area under the curve (AUC) for MCI across 100 randomly split testing and training sets, performance was similar across models, but slightly better for the following models: the chronic conditions model and genetic model (mean MSEs = 0.2464) using gradient-boosted trees for GCSC prediction and the chronic conditions model (mean AUC = 62%) and metabolite model (mean AUC = 60%) using logistic regression for MCI prediction. Using the Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) method, age at baseline, time between exams, and sex were the most important predictors for GCSC, followed by diabetes and global ancestral proportions. Diabetes and the metabolite ribitol had the highest influence on prediction of MCI. Although prediction performance was not especially high and did not vary greatly across models, incorporating information on diabetes, ancestry and metabolites may help improve prediction of GCSC and MCI.

Over 75 Alzheimer's disease (AD) and dementia-associated variants have been identified through genome-wide association studies, but the utility of polygenic risk scores (PRS) for predicting AD and dementia in diverse and admixed populations remains unclear. We compared how PRS approaches differing in p-value thresholds, variant weights, and source ancestry perform in predicting dementia in 6338 African American, Chinese, Hispanic, and White individuals from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. We tested clumping and thresholding (C+T) methods with varying parameters against Bayesian approaches (PRS-CS, PRS-CSx). We compared the ability of each method to predict incident dementia in all participants and in groups stratified by self-reported race/ethnicity. We additionally analyzed performance across groups stratified by estimated proportion of non-Finnish European (NFE)-like ancestry. Including more variants does not improve performance. We found comparable associations between dementia and PRS when comparing a C+T method with only 15 SNPs and PRS derived from Bayesian models that include > 800,000 SNPs (HR5e-08 = 1.18, 95% CI: 1.08-1.28; HRCSx = 1.17, 95% CI: 1.07-1.27). The p < 5e-08 C+T method was more strongly associated with incident dementia in populations genetically dissimilar from the source data (HRlowNFE_5e-08 = 1.27, 95% CI: 1.08-1.50; HRlowNFE_CSx = 1.12, 95% CI: 0.94-1.33). More selective PRS models using genome-wide significant SNPs may be preferable for dementia prediction in diverse populations.

BACKGROUND: The APOE ε4 allele has weaker association with ADRD outcomes in Hispanic/Latino populations compared to non-Hispanic White and East Asian populations.

METHODS: We used whole-genome sequencing data from 13,025 Hispanic/Latino adults to infer population groups (clusters) from short DNA sequences at the APOE gene region. We estimated the associations between these clusters and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and age-adjusted significant cognitive decline assessed via the Study of Latinos-Investigation of Neurocognitive Aging (SOL-INCA) study (n = 5334). We compared these associations to those of the conventional APOE alleles.

RESULTS: We identified three clusters of individuals. Relative to the largest Cluster 1, being in Cluster 3 had higher likelihood of having significant cognitive decline, with odds ratio (OR) = 1.47, 95% confidence interval (CI) [1.18, 1.84], p < 0.001. The association with having prevalent MCI at the SOL-INCA exam was not statistically significant, with OR = 1.33, 95% CI [0.97, 1.83], p = 0.08. Associations of the ε4 allele with these traits were not statistically significant.

DISCUSSION: The new APOE profile has stronger risk association with age-adjusted significant cognitive decline in SOL-INCA Hispanics/Latinos compared to the ε4 allele.

INTRODUCTION: We studied the replication and generalization of previously identified metabolites potentially associated with global cognitive function in multiple race/ethnicities and assessed the contribution of diet to these associations.

METHODS: We tested metabolite-cognitive function associations in U.S.A. Hispanic/Latino adults (n = 2222) from the Community Health Study/ Study of Latinos (HCHS/SOL) and in European (n = 1365) and African (n = 478) Americans from the Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities (ARIC) Study. We applied Mendelian Randomization (MR) analyses to assess causal associations between the metabolites and cognitive function and between Mediterranean diet and cognitive function.

RESULTS: Six metabolites were consistently associated with lower global cognitive function across all studies. Of these, four were sugar-related (e.g., ribitol). MR analyses provided weak evidence for a potential causal effect of ribitol on cognitive function and bi-directional effects of cognitive performance on diet.

DISCUSSION: Several diet-related metabolites were associated with global cognitive function across studies with different race/ethnicities.

HIGHLIGHTS: Metabolites associated with cognitive function in Puerto Rican adults were recently identified. We demonstrate the generalizability of these associations across diverse race/ethnicities. Most identified metabolites are related to sugars. Mendelian Randomization (MR) provides weak evidence for a causal effect of ribitol on cognitive function. Beta-cryptoxanthin and other metabolites highlight the importance of a healthy diet.

INTRODUCTION: Blood metabolomics-based biomarkers may be useful to predict measures of neurocognitive aging.

METHODS: We tested the association between 707 blood metabolites measured in 1451 participants from the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos (HCHS/SOL), with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and global cognitive change assessed 7 years later. We further used Lasso penalized regression to construct a metabolomics risk score (MRS) that predicts MCI, potentially identifying a different set of metabolites than those discovered in individual-metabolite analysis.

RESULTS: We identified 20 metabolites predicting prevalent MCI and/or global cognitive change. Six of them were novel and 14 were previously reported as associated with neurocognitive aging outcomes. The MCI MRS comprised 61 metabolites and improved prediction accuracy from 84% (minimally adjusted model) to 89% in the entire dataset and from 75% to 87% among apolipoprotein E ε4 carriers.

DISCUSSION: Blood metabolites may serve as biomarkers identifying individuals at risk for MCI among US Hispanics/Latinos.

INTRODUCTION: Blood metabolomics-based biomarkers may be useful to predict measures of neurocognitive aging.

METHODS: We tested the association between 707 blood metabolites measured in 1451 participants from the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos (HCHS/SOL), with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and global cognitive change assessed 7 years later. We further used Lasso penalized regression to construct a metabolomics risk score (MRS) that predicts MCI, potentially identifying a different set of metabolites than those discovered in individual-metabolite analysis.

RESULTS: We identified 20 metabolites predicting prevalent MCI and/or global cognitive change. Six of them were novel and 14 were previously reported as associated with neurocognitive aging outcomes. The MCI MRS comprised 61 metabolites and improved prediction accuracy from 84% (minimally adjusted model) to 89% in the entire dataset and from 75% to 87% among apolipoprotein E ε4 carriers.

DISCUSSION: Blood metabolites may serve as biomarkers identifying individuals at risk for MCI among US Hispanics/Latinos.