Publications

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: In this article, we examine the intersection of human migration and climate change. Growing evidence that changing environmental and climate conditions are triggers for displacement, whether voluntary or forced, adds a powerful argument for profound anticipatory engagement.

RECENT FINDINGS: Climate change is expected to displace vast populations from rural to urban areas, and when life in the urban centers becomes untenable, many will continue their onward migration elsewhere (Wennersten and Robbins 2017; Rigaud et al. 2018). It is now accepted that the changing climate will be a threat multiplier, will exacerbate the need or decision to migrate, and will disproportionately affect large already vulnerable sections of humanity. Worst-case scenario models that assume business-as-usual approaches to climate change predict that nearly one-third of the global population will live in extremely hot (uninhabitable) climates, currently found in less than 1% of the earth's surface mainly in the Sahara. We find that the post-World War II regime designed to receive European migrants has failed to address population movement in the latter half of the twentieth century fueled by economic want, globalization, opening (and then closing) borders, civil strife, and war. Key stakeholders are in favor of using existing instruments to support a series of local, regional, and international arrangements to protect environmental migrants, most of whom will not cross international borders. The proposal for a dedicated UN agency and a new Convention has largely come from academia and NGOs. Migration is now recognized not only as a consequence of instability but as an adaptation strategy to the changing climate. Migration must be anticipated as a certainty, and thereby planned for and supported.

INTRODUCTION: Acute surgical care services in rural Sub-Saharan Africa suffer from human resource and systemic constraints. Developing emergency care systems and task sharing aspects of acute surgical care addresses many of these issues. This paper investigates the degree to which specialized non-physicians practicing in a dedicated Emergency Department contribute to the effective and efficient management of acute surgical patients.

METHODS: This is a retrospective review of an electronic quality assurance database of patients presenting to an Emergency Department in rural Uganda staffed by non-physician clinicians trained in emergency care. Relevant de-identified clinical data on patients admitted directly to the operating theater from 2011 to 2014 were analyzed in Microsoft Excel.

RESULTS: Overall, 112 Emergency Department patients were included in the analysis and 96% received some form of laboratory testing, imaging, medication, or procedure in the ED, prior to surgery. 72% of surgical patients referred by ED received preoperative antibiotics, and preoperative fluid resuscitation was initiated in 65%. Disposition to operating theater was accomplished within 3 h of presentation for 73% of patients. 79% were successfully followed up to assess outcomes at 72 h. 92% of those with successful follow-up reported improvement in their clinical condition. The confirmed mortality rate was 5%.

CONCLUSION: Specialized non-physician clinicians practicing in a dedicated Emergency Department can perform resuscitation, bedside imaging and laboratory studies to aid in diagnosis of acute surgical patients and arrange transfer to an operating theater in an efficient fashion. This model has the potential to sustainably address structural and human resources problems inherent to Sub-Saharan Africa's current acute surgical care model and will benefit from further study and expansion.

OBJECTIVES: Hurricanes cause substantial mortality, especially in developing nations, and climate science predicts that powerful hurricanes will increase in frequency during the coming decades. This study examined the association of wind speed and national economic conditions with mortality in a large sample of hurricane events in small countries.

METHODS: Economic, meteorological, and fatality data for 149 hurricane events in 16 nations between 1958 and 2011 were analyzed. Mortality rate was modeled with negative binomial regression implemented by generalized estimating equations to account for variable population exposure, sequence of storm events, exposure of multiple islands to the same storm, and nonlinear associations.

RESULTS: Low-amplitude storms caused little mortality regardless of economic status. Among high-amplitude storms (Saffir-Simpson category 4 or 5), expected mortality rate was 0.72 deaths per 100,000 people (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.16-1.28) for nations in the highest tertile of per capita gross domestic product (GDP) compared with 25.93 deaths per 100,000 people (95% CI: 13.30-38.55) for nations with low per capita GDP.

CONCLUSIONS: Lower per capita GDP and higher wind speeds were associated with greater mortality rates in small countries. Excessive fatalities occurred when powerful storms struck resource-poor nations. Predictions of increasing storm amplitude over time suggest increasing disparity between death rates unless steps are taken to modify the risk profiles of poor nations. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:832-837).

BACKGROUND Latrepirdine is an orally administered experimental small molecule that was initially developed as an antihistamine and subsequently was shown to stabilize mitochondrial membranes and function, which might be impaired in Huntington disease. OBJECTIVE To determine the effect of latrepirdine on cognition and global function in patients with mild to moderate Huntington disease. DESIGN Randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study. SETTING Sixty-four research centers in Australia, Europe, and North America. PATIENTS Four hundred three patients with mild to moderate Huntington disease and baseline cognitive impairment (Mini-Mental State Examination score, 10-26). INTERVENTION Latrepirdine (20 mg) vs matching placebo administered orally 3 times daily for 26 weeks. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES The co-primary outcome measures were cognition as measured by the change in Mini-Mental State Examination score from baseline to week 26 and global function at week 26 as measured by the Clinician Interview-Based Impression of Change, plus carer interview, which ranges from 1 (marked improvement) to 7 (marked worsening). Secondary efficacy outcome measures included behavior, daily function, motor function, and safety. RESULTS The mean change in Mini-Mental State Examination score among participants randomized to latrepirdine (1.5-point improvement) did not differ significantly from that among participants randomized to placebo (1.3-point improvement) (P=.39). Similarly, the distribution of the Clinician Interview-Based Impression of Change, plus carer interview did not differ significantly among those randomized to latrepirdine compared with placebo (P=.84). No significant treatment effects were detected on the secondary efficacy outcome measures. The incidence of adverse events was similar between those randomized to latrepirdine (68.5%) and placebo (68.0%). CONCLUSION In patients with mild to moderate Huntington disease and cognitive impairment, treatment with latrepirdine for 6 months was safe and well tolerated but did not improve cognition or global function relative to placebo. TRIAL REGISTRATION clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00920946.