Publications by Year: 2024

BACKGROUND: Identifying individuals with severe aortic stenosis (AS) at high risk of mortality remains challenging using current clinical imaging methods.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to evaluate an artificial intelligence decision support algorithm (AI-DSA) to augment the detection of severe AS within a well-resourced health care setting.

METHODS: Agnostic to clinical information, an AI-DSA trained to identify echocardiographic phenotype associated with an aortic valve area (AVA)<1 cm2 using minimal input data (excluding left ventricular outflow tract measures) was applied to routine transthoracic echocardiograms (TTE) reports from 31,141 U.S. Medicare beneficiaries at an academic medical center (2003-2017).

RESULTS: Performance of AI-DSA to detect the phenotype associated with an AVA<1 cm2 was excellent (sensitivity 82.2%, specificity 98.1%, negative predictive value 9.2%, c-statistic = 0.986). In addition to identifying clinical severe AS cases, AI-DSA identified an additional 1,034 (3.3%) individuals with guideline-defined moderate AS but with a similar clinical and TTE phenotype to those with severe AS with low rates of aortic valve replacement (6.6%). Five-year mortality was 75.9% in those with known severe AS, 73.5% in those with a similar phenotype to severe AS, and 44.6% in those without severe AS. The AI-DSA continued to perform well to identify severe AS among those with a depressed left ventricular ejection fraction. Overall rates of aortic valve replacement remained low, even in those with an AVA<1 cm2 (21.9%).

CONCLUSIONS: Without relying on left ventricular outflow tract measurements, an AI-DSA used echocardiographic reports to reliably identify the phenotype of severe AS. These results suggest possible utility for this AI-DSA to enhance detection of severe AS individuals at risk for adverse outcomes.

BACKGROUND: The optimal hemoglobin threshold to guide red blood cell (RBC) transfusion for patients with acute myocardial infarction (MI) and anemia is uncertain.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the efficacy of 4 individual hemoglobin thresholds (<10 g/dL [<100 g/L], <9 g/dL [<90 g/L], <8 g/dL [<80 g/L], and <7 g/dL [<70 g/L]) to guide transfusion in patients with acute MI and anemia.

DESIGN: Prespecified secondary analysis of the MINT (Myocardial Ischemia and Transfusion) trial using target trial emulation methods. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02981407).

SETTING: 144 clinical sites in 6 countries.

PARTICIPANTS: 3492 MINT trial participants with acute MI and a hemoglobin level below 10 g/dL.

INTERVENTION: Four transfusion strategies to maintain patients' hemoglobin concentrations at or above thresholds of 10, 9, 8, or 7 g/dL. Protocol exceptions were permitted for specified adverse clinical events.

MEASUREMENTS: Data from the MINT trial were leveraged to emulate 4 transfusion strategies and estimate per protocol effects on the composite outcome of 30-day death or recurrent MI (death/MI) and 30-day death using inverse probability weighting.

RESULTS: The 30-day risk for death/MI was 14.8% (95% CI, 11.8% to 18.4%) for a <10-g/dL strategy, 15.1% (CI, 11.7% to 18.2%) for a <9-g/dL strategy, 15.9% (CI, 12.4% to 19.0%) for a <8-g/dL strategy, and 18.3% (CI, 14.6% to 22.0%) for a <7-g/dL strategy. Absolute risk differences and risk ratios relative to the <10-g/dL strategy for 30-day death/MI increased as thresholds decreased, although 95% CIs were wide. Findings were similar and imprecise for 30-day death.

LIMITATION: Unmeasured confounding may have persisted despite adjustment.

CONCLUSION: The 30-day risks for death/MI and death among patients with acute MI and anemia seem to increase progressively with lower hemoglobin concentration thresholds for transfusion. However, the imprecision around estimates from this target trial analysis precludes definitive conclusions about individual hemoglobin thresholds.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.

BACKGROUND: Frailty is associated with adverse cardiovascular outcomes independent of age and comorbidities, yet the independent influence of frailty progression remains uncertain.

METHODS: Medicare Fee-for-service beneficiaries ≥ 65 years at cohort inception with continuous enrollment from 2003-2015 were included. Frailty trajectory was measured by annualized change in a validated claims-based frailty index (CFI) over a 5-year period. Linear mixed effects models, adjusting for baseline frailty, were used to estimate CFI change over a 5-year period. Survival analysis was used to evaluate associations of frailty progression and future health outcomes (major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events [MACCE], all-cause death, heart failure, myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, and days alive at home [DAH] within the following calendar year).

RESULTS: 26.4 million unique beneficiaries were included (mean age 75.4 ± 7.0 years, 57% female, 13% non-White). In total, 20% had frailty progression, 66% had no change in frailty, and 14% frailty regression over median follow-up of 2.4 years. Compared to those without a change in CFI, when adjusting for baseline frailty, those with frailty progression had significantly greater risk of incident MACCE (hazard ratio [HR] 2.30, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.30-2.31), all-cause mortality (HR 1.59, 95% CI 1.58-1.59), acute myocardial infarction (HR 1.78, 95% CI 1.77-1.79), heart failure (HR 2.78, 95% CI 2.77-2.79), and stroke (HR 1.78, 95% CI 1.77-1.79). There was also a graded increase in risk of each outcome with more rapid progression and significantly fewer DAH with the most rapid vs. the slowest progression group (270.4 ± 112.3 vs. 308.6 ± 93.0 days, rate ratio 0.88, 95% CI 0.87-0.88, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS: In this large, nationwide sample of Medicare beneficiaries, frailty progression, independent of baseline frailty, was associated with fewer DAH and a graded risk of MACCE, all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction, heart failure, and stroke compared to those without progression.

BACKGROUND: Ultrasound enhancing agents (UEAs) are an invaluable adjunct to stress and transthoracic echocardiography (STE) to improve left ventricular visualization. Despite multiple single center studies evaluating UEA use, investigation into the rates, sources of variation, and outcomes of UEA use on a national level in the United States (US) has been limited by lack of validation of UEA codes for claims analyses.

METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cross-sectional study, 2019-2022, using linked multicenter electronic medical record (EMR) data from > 30 health systems linked to all-payor claims data representing > 90% of the US population. Individuals receiving STE in both EMR and claims data on the same day during the study window were included. UEA receipt as identified by presence of a Current Procedural Terminology (CPT) or National Drug Code (NDC) for UEA use within 1-day of the index STE event. We evaluated the performance of claims to identify UEA use, using EMR data as the gold standard, stratified by inpatient and outpatient status.

RESULTS: Amongst 54,525 individuals receiving STE in both EMR and claims data, 12,853 (23.6%) had a UEA claim in EMR, 10,461 (19.2%) had a UEA claim in claims, and 9140 (16.8%) had a UEA claim in both within the 1-day window. The sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive, and negative predictive values for UEA claims were 71.1%, 96.8%, 90.8%, 87.4%. and 91.6% respectively. However, amongst inpatients, the sensitivity of UEA claims was substantially lower (6.8%) compared to outpatients (79.7%).

CONCLUSIONS: While the overall accuracy of claims to identify UEA use was high, there was substantial under-capture of UEA use by claims amongst inpatients. These results call into question published rates of UEA use amongst inpatients in studies using administrative claims, and highlight ongoing need to improve inpatient coding for UEA use.

BACKGROUND: Normalization of echocardiographic chamber measurements for body surface area may result in misclassification of individuals with obesity or sarcopenia. Normalization for alternative measures of body size may be preferable, but there remains a dearth of information on their normative values and association with cardiovascular function metrics.

METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 3032 individuals underwent comprehensive 2-dimensional echocardiography at Exam 6 in MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis). In the subgroup of 608 individuals free of cardiopulmonary disease (69.5±7.0 years, 46% male, 48% White, 17% Chinese, 15% Black, 21% Hispanic), normative values were derived for left and right cardiac chamber measurements across a variety of ratiometric (body surface area, body mass index, height) and allometric (height1.6, height2.7) scaling parameters. Normative upper and lower reference values were provided for each scaling parameter stratified across age groups, sex, and race or ethnicity. Among scaling parameters, body surface area and height were associated with the least variability across race and ethnicity categories and height2.7 was associated with the least variability across sex categories.

CONCLUSIONS: In this diverse cohort of community-dwelling older adults, we provide normative values for common echocardiographic parameters across a variety of indexation methods.

Right ventricular (RV) to pulmonary arterial (PA) coupling describes the ability of the RV to augment contractility in response to increased afterload. Several echocardiographic indexes of RV-PA coupling have been defined; however, the optimal numerator in the coupling ratio is unclear. We sought to establish which of these ratios is best for assessing RV-PA coupling based on their relations with 6-minute walk distance (6MWD), N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), and the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ) in aging adults. In this study of 1,611 Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis participants who underwent echocardiography at Exam 6, we evaluated the association between different numerators, including tricuspid annular planar systolic excursion (TAPSE), fractional area change (FAC), RV free wall strain, and tissue Doppler imaging S' velocity to pulmonary artery systolic pressure (PASP) with 6MWD, NT-proBNP, and KCCQ score, adjusted for socioeconomic and cardiovascular disease risk factors. Our cohort had a mean age of 73 ± 8 years, 54% female, 17% Chinese American, 22% African American, 22% Hispanic, and 39% White participants. The mean ( ± SD) TAPSE/PASP, FAC/PASP, tissue Doppler imaging S' velocity/PASP, and RV free wall strain:PASP ratios were 0.7 ± 0.2, 1.3 ± 0.3, 0.5 ± 0.1, and 0.8 ± 0.2, respectively. All RV-PA coupling indices decreased with age (p <0.0001 for all). TAPSE:PASP ratio was lower in older (³85 years) female (0.59 ± 0.14) versus male (0.65 ± 0.17) participants (p = 0.01), whereas FAC/PASP ratio was higher in the same female versus male participants (p <0.01). TAPSE/PASP and FAC/PASP ratios were significantly and strongly associated with all NT-proBNP, 6MWD, and KCCQ scores in fully adjusted and receiver operating characteristic analysis. In older community-dwelling adults free of heart failure and pulmonary hypertension, both FAC/PASP and TAPSE:PASP ratios are optimal for assessment of RV-PA coupling based on its association with 6MWD, NT-proBNP, and KCCQ score. FAC/PASP ratio has the additional benefit of reflecting age and gender-related geometric and functional changes.

BACKGROUND: The mortality risk attributable to moderate aortic stenosis (AS) remains incompletely characterized and has historically been underestimated. We aim to evaluate the association between moderate AS and all-cause death, comparing it with no/mild AS (in a general referral population and in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction).

METHODS AND RESULTS: A systematic review and pooled meta-analysis of Kaplan-Meier-derived reconstructed time-to-event data of studies published by June 2023 was conducted to evaluate survival outcomes among patients with moderate AS in comparison with individuals with no/mild AS. Ten studies were included, encompassing a total of 409 680 patients (11 527 with moderate AS and 398 153 with no/mild AS). In the overall population, the 15-year overall survival rate was 23.3% (95% CI, 19.1%-28.3%) in patients with moderate AS and 58.9% (95% CI, 58.1%-59.7%) in patients with no/mild aortic stenosis (hazard ratio [HR], 2.55 [95% CI, 2.46-2.64]; P<0.001). In patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction, the 10-year overall survival rate was 15.5% (95% CI, 10.0%-24.0%) in patients with moderate AS and 37.3% (95% CI, 36.2%-38.5%) in patients with no/mild AS (HR, 1.83 [95% CI, 1.69-2.0]; P<0.001). In both populations (overall and heart failure with reduced ejection fraction), these differences correspond to significant lifetime loss associated with moderate AS during follow-up (4.4 years, P<0.001; and 1.9 years, P<0.001, respectively). A consistent pattern of elevated mortality rate associated with moderate AS in sensitivity analyses of matched studies was observed.

CONCLUSIONS: Moderate AS was associated with higher risk of death and lifetime loss compared with patients with no/mild AS.

BACKGROUND: Echocardiographic (2-dimensional echocardiography) thresholds indicating disease or impaired functional status compared with normal physiological aging in individuals aged ≥65 years are not clearly defined. In the present study, we sought to establish standard values for 2-dimensional echocardiography parameters related to chamber size and function in older adults without cardiopulmonary or cardiometabolic conditions.

METHODS: In this cross-sectional study of 3032 individuals who underwent 2-dimensional echocardiography at exam 6 in the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis), 608 participants fulfilled our inclusion criteria of healthy aging, with normative values defined as the mean ± 1.96 standard deviation and compared across sex and race and ethnicity. Functional status measures included NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide), 6-minute walk distance, and Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire. Prognostic performance using MESA cutoffs was compared with established guideline cutoffs using time-to-event analysis.

RESULTS: The normative aging cohort (69.5±7.0 years, 46.2% male, 47.5% White) had lower NT-proBNP, higher 6-minute walk distance, and higher (better) Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire summary values. Women had significantly smaller chamber sizes and better biventricular systolic function. White participants had the largest chamber dimensions, whereas Chinese participants had the smallest, even after adjustment for body size. Current guidelines identified 81.6% of healthy older adults in MESA as having cardiac abnormalities.

CONCLUSIONS: Among a large, diverse group of healthy older adults, we found significant differences in cardiac structure and function by sex and race/ethnicity, which may signal sex-specific cardiac remodeling with advancing age. It is crucial for existing guidelines to consider the observed and clinically significant differences in cardiac structure and function associated with healthy aging. Our study highlights that existing guidelines, which grade abnormalities in echocardiographic cardiac chamber size and function based on younger individuals, may not adequately address the anticipated changes associated with normal aging.